Here we are at the end of week 2 of January 2020! Our daily statistics tracker shows new listings surged by the 10th and then dropping down again in volume, while total pendings are almost matching actives at 98%. (https://tinyurl.com/BPStatisticsDaily). What’s really amazing is that there is a 44% ratio of 6-day pendings to current new-actives, which is unusually high, and not buyer-friendly. It could be amplified by the 2019 holiday inventory vacuum combined with January 2020 threats of early snow, so we’ll just have to see what falls out in the next few weeks!
New Actives took an unexpected dip while new Pendings pushed upwards, causing a 44% ratio of 6-or-less day-pendings, compared to new actives. MLS Market Watch showed 36 new Pendings to only 17 new Actives, a very seller-friendly environment:
Alan Pope’s great site (alanpope.com) is showing inventory dropping by about 1,000 in just a couple of the last months. If this continues, we’re back into a multiple-offer market. We’ll know more in the next couple of weeks as to whether that will pull back up (the blue line):
That’s it for now, hoping you have an awesome start to the year, and we hope you will reach out to us for any help we can offer! You can also see our weekly Seattle market update “This Week In Seattle Real Estate” at brucephares.withwre.
What a year! Thank you, thank you, thank you!! With 2019 firmly in the rear-view mirror and 2020 unfolding at our feet, we wanted to reach out and express our gratitude for the trust that so many of you have placed in us this last year to represent you, your family, your friends, and your colleagues! We take your business as well as your referrals very seriously, holding them as sacred gifts.
We’re already strategizing with a number of our current clients, gearing up for a strong start to 2020 and we’re looking forward to more opportunities to earn your trust, confidence, and loyalty as the year unfolds. Whether it be our weekly market analysis, our video blog “This Week In Seattle Real Estate,” a question about a remodel, a need for a service referral or, a house to be sold or purchased, our team is always here to help you and those you care about. Never hesitate to reach out to us, we’ll be thrilled to hear from you!
After over 30 years in the business, our team has continued to grow and evolve to meet the changing needs and demands of the complex Greater Seattle real estate market. You may not have met all of the members of the team yet, so in case you haven’t, please allow us to quickly re-introduce our respective players on the field:
First of all, we’re already thankful for the contributions of the newest member of our team! Will Huston, who signed on in Summer 2018, bringing to the mix an awesome repertoire of marketing, technology, communications skills and experience, a perfect fit for the team! Besides graduating Summa Cum Laude from The University of Vermont, his devotion to excellence helps raise the bar for all of us on the team!
Providing steady counsel and strategic guidance full-time with Team BruceandDonna since 2013, Mark Besta continues to demonstrate why he is recognized in the industry for his deep understanding of contract law as well as his organizational skill sets. Mark’s communication skills are of the highest level.
Finally, there’s Bruce, who has been practicing real estate in Seattle since 1987. Upon joining practices with Donna Bertolino, the two became known as “The Attorneys Advocates” as a majority of their clients were comprised of lawyers from major law firms in Seattle. Donna serves in an advisory capacity to Bruce, Mark, and Will, offering her valuable counsel and advice on a limited basis.
We continue to enjoy being aligned with Windermere Real Estate, the Northwest’s largest, most recognized and respected real estate organization. We’re grateful for the awesome support of our fabulous office staff, comprised of Jeannette Ault, Lindy Oden, Tracie McGovern, & Lars Peterson.
That’s it for now, hoping you have an awesome start to the year, and we hope you will reach out to us for any help we can offer! You can also see our weekly Seattle market update “This Week In Seattle Real Estate” at http://brucephares.withwre.
Here’s our review of the highs and lows and trends of this last year’s in-city real estate market, along with our predictions for the first 4 months activity in what is now 2020!
|Least Listings Available||Most Listings Available||Most New Listings||Least New Listings||Most Pending Inspection||Least Pending Inspection||Most Pendings||Least Pendings||Most 6- Day||Least 6- Day||Most 6-Day to NA||Lowest 6-Day to NA||Highest 6-Day to NA|
Most “listings on market” moment was the post-July 4th surge, most new listings hit mid-May, most Pending-Inspections were early March, most pendings were at the same time, and the most 6-day or less were early April. Highest ratio of 6-day-or-less pendings was mid March, at a whopping 68%!
Below are the New Actives and New Pendings numbers for the first 4 months of the last 5 years:
Inventory ramps up 2nd to 3rd month historically and pending activity follow suit 3rd to 4th month.
Here is a chart showing sales price differentials between 4 selected areas: Seattle Overall (black line), Ballard to Ravenna (green), Central Capitol Hill/Montlake/Madison, etc. (orange), and I90 to S Othello (purple):
An interactive version of this graph can be seen here: https://nwmls.stats.showingtime.com/infoserv/s-v1/8KiV-ko1
Using Ballard as the “Canary In The Coal Mine”, 2019 saw a median sales price lowering of approximately $33k.
Using Alan Pope’s inventory to pendings graphing (http://alanpope.com/Nov19/390_700-720.pdf), we see the following:
Inventory exceeded pending activity for the first time in 3 years, at June 2018. Pending activity stayed roughly constant with historical trending. Price decreasing experienced in the market has been caused by inventory surging. But, note that inventory numbers are declining rapidly. We will watch closely for the last set of numbers due this week and the daily numbers as we move into January’s upcoming weeks.
As a seller, you’d likely see best timing as April-May, for higher pending numbers. As a buyer, you’ll likely see gradual increase in inventory through the first few months (after surge replenishing from Dec holiday vacuum), and most inventory to pending ratio being post-September.
Call us if we can be of help!
The biggest question that our active and upcoming clients ask around this time, is when does the market shift back into gear? For our buyers, we want to know when to expect a surge of inventory as well as understand if there’s a lull in the market that would be favorable for them. For our upcoming sellers, when does the surge of pendings occur (if at all), and when is a good time to drop into the market? Come along as we take a look at the last 5 years, from the December market into the first part of the year, from 2015 forward!
NWMLS Matrix InfoSparks:
New Listings Frequency:
Pending Sales Frequency:
Alan Pope’s Inventory Tracker:
Thanksgiving Week! Newly Actives dropped radically, as expected, to half of new inventory in June and July, with Pending Inspections and Pendings following suit. The ratio of NA’s dropping is greater than the P/PI’s ratio, indicating that demand continues to be higher than inventory, but not as incendiary. 6-day P/PI’s also declined, landing just under 20%. It’s a typical Thanksgiving week! MLS Market Watch shows radical drop in New Actives, radical drop in Pendings. Statistics page can be seen here: tinyurl.com/BPStatisticsDaily
- Home electrical fires account for an estimated 51,000 fires each year, nearly than 500 deaths, more than 1,400 injuries, and $1.3 billion in property damage.
- Electrical distribution systems are the third leading cause of home structure fires.
- Each year in the United States, arcing faults are responsible for starting more than 28,000 home fires, killing and injuring hundreds of people, and causing over $700 million in property damage.
- The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) reports that electrical receptacles are involved in 5,300 fires every year, causing forty deaths and more than 100 consumer injuries.
If you’ve been to enough structural inspections as a real estate agent, you’ll likely end up being alerted by the attending inspector as to the existence of an obsolete or dangerous electrical breaker panel. The most common for us in the Puget Sound region are Zinsco panels, followed by occasional sitings of Stab-Lok electrical panels.
Zinsco panels (often with the sub-name “Magnatrip”) are usually easy to spot, as they distinguished their product with color-coded breaker switches,
and often the panel’s label would feature a large “Z” (although, not always, after Zinsco was bought out by Sylvania, the logo changed, but the colored switches remained).
If you Google Zinsco, you’ll find many an article on the failure-prone aspect of the panel, and from our point of view as agents, it’s simply a binary issue when we come across one: It’s got to go, whether it’s in a property that one of our buyer clients wishes to purchase, or if it’s in a listing that we’re bringing on market, it simply has to go. The easiest failure aspect to point to is that Zinsco’s use of aluminum alloy allowed for expansion and contraction, leading to arcing and fusing of components, so much so that the name “Magnatrip” was nicknamed “No-Trip” by insiders in the industry. So many reasons exist to replace any and every Zinsco panel, starting with the fact that it will be pointed out at any inspection as a severe hazard to the home and safety, then moving on to insurance issues, not to mention that most licensed electrical contractors will not work on a Zinsco, for liability reasons.
The other culprit is the Stab Lok breaker panel, with its own set of issues.
We occasionally come across these in the region and similarly strongly recommend replacement wherever, whenever they are observed.
Typically, Stab-Lok can be identified by its signature black and red switches from a distance, and the Stab-Lok logo on the panel.
If you’ve bought a home in the last couple of decades, it’s likely you do not have one of these (because, if you had, it would have been replaced), however, if you know someone such as an older family member, who is more likely to have lived decades in the same home, there’s a good chance they may have one of these. The prevailing wisdom is: The longer they are in use, the more stressed the connections may become, potentially increasing the possibility of failure and catastrophe.
If you’re here in the Seattle area, and you have observed one of these, we encourage you to have it inspected, or if in someone else’s’ home, recommend having it inspected and likely replaced. If you’d like to ask a professional, here’s our most trusted electrical contractor who has replaced scores of these for our clients over the last three decades:
|Chuck Cubine||Bowie Electric Servicefirstname.lastname@example.org||www.bowieservice.com|
For our focus this week, I’m highlighting the Licton Springs historical site and a series of posts regarding its 1st Nations significance as well as newly designated status as a landmark site. I was doing research for a client on the nature of streams and wetlands in the north section of our city when I came across this cool research page on Licton Springs, which led me on to a number of excellent web posts which can be seen below. Ironically, about 3 days later, Seattle Times posted their report on the site achieving landmark status, so I thought “I have to post this!”, and here we go!
Video for this week’s blog can be seen here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1B8qhNSUNuJA80kHnJfEs7oSuVjTDdwY5/view
This week on a special edition of TWISRE, we’re going to attempt to shoot holes in the old adage “It’s better to wait until Spring, to list your home!”, and see if the statistics for sales prices, market time, and sale-price to list-price ratios support that well-worn chestnut. If you, or someone you know, is trying to figure out when you should bring your property on to market, this info will likely impact your decision! Unfiltered, unedited, and unsanitized, it’s a frank and unbiased look at market conditions and trending.
10/20/2019: Total NA’s dropped some more, but still above 900. PI’s above 120 for first time in two months, 6-day P/PI’s cooled a bit into the mid 170’s. Weekly P/PI’s at now around 110% of NA’s, 6-Day P/PI’s holding over 30% of P/PI’s, Total P/PI’s aholding over 60% of NA’s. MLS Market Watch shows NA’s at normal level, LPR’s above 100 for 4th week, P’s very healthy at over 190 for 5th week, vs 122 NA’s. Only 2 Contingent.
This Week In Seattle Real Estate – 10/6/2019 – Does Inventory Really Have A Corollary Effect On Home Pricing?
9/29/2019: This last week total Newly Actives (NA’s) coming onto the market dropped a bit, total amount of Pending Inspections (PI’s) surged, total amount of existing Pendings also jumped up a bit and the total amount of existing 6-day P/PI’s (properties that went into contract within 6 days of listing date) surged as well. Interestingly, weekly P’s and weekly 6-day P/PI’s dropped to almost 0! Weekly P/PI% to NA ratios was 108%, highest in a couple of months, total P/PI% to NA ratio is at 63%, both highest in a couple of months. MLS Market Watch shows NA’s steady at 135 per week, Pendings also steady, and Contingents continue to be almost non-existent.
This week’s focus is on what locations are having the highest incidents of 6-day-or-less listings going to pending or pending inspection (P, PI), to get an idea of the areas with the most intense competition.